|Student Name:||Shaun Carney, Capt|
|Thesis:||Investigation into Risk and Uncertainty: Identifying Coefficient of Variation Benchmarks for Air Force ACAT I Programs|
|Location:||Room 207, Building 646|
|Date & Time:||02/19/2013 at 1000|
|Abstract:|| The Air Force is searching for measures to reduce cost growth in defense acquisitions during times of constrained budgets across the Department of Defense. Previous DoD cost growth studies found typical cost growth in defense acquisitions is around forty-six to sixty percent of the original estimate. The research in this study addresses the identification of risk and uncertainty benchmarks by providing decision makers with coefficient of variation ranges for cost estimates. The hypothesis is that if cost estimates include enough risk and uncertainty adjustments then the department could more accurately estimate programs and therefore reduce cost growth. The intentions of the study are to recommend coefficient of variation (CV) ranges for Air Force Acquisition programs, determine if different CV ranges should be used base on platform type, and determine if CV decreases over the course of the program’s acquisition lifecycle. This research is unique to previous cost growth studies because it employs source data from program offices in addition to Selective Acquisition Reports to answer the research questions.